Crypto Price Analysis & Overview: Bitcoin, Ethereum ...

Subreddit Stats: UKPersonalFinance top posts from 2015-04-30 to 2020-05-28 12:09 PDT

Period: 1855.16 days
Submissions Comments
Total 1000 112953
Rate (per day) 0.54 60.88
Unique Redditors 791 17078
Combined Score 165654 806658

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 3277 points, 16 submissions: AddInvest
    1. Young Welsh and Minted (590 points, 257 comments)
    2. You might not know you can buy an NHS prescription prepayment voucher for £30 for 3 months. This gives you unlimited an number of items. If you have to buy more than one item per month, this will work out considerably cheaper for you. (573 points, 132 comments)
    3. HR Having a Laugh!? (287 points, 87 comments)
    4. Government will pay people’s wages so they’re not laid off (284 points, 397 comments)
    5. Are you still being made to work despite being furloughed? (265 points, 96 comments)
    6. BoE says negative interest rates are ‘under review’ for first time (173 points, 167 comments)
    7. What’s up with the stock market? (158 points, 147 comments)
    8. Has the airline industry fundamentally changed? (153 points, 207 comments)
    9. What happend to the North!? price of a pint (128 points, 192 comments)
    10. We need a budget template (121 points, 24 comments)
  2. 2088 points, 8 submissions: kkokokoh
    1. Can the IT brigade on this sub please stop dishing out "learn programming" as a solution to every job problem? (1081 points, 310 comments)
    2. How can people afford new cars like Range Rover which cost £50k+ by so many people on what looks like normal salaries? How are they able to afford such expensive cars? (312 points, 469 comments)
    3. What is the most effective advice you have received on progressing in your career? E.g. Going up the ladder in roles and pay? (141 points, 193 comments)
    4. Fed up of London estate agents and property developers/maintainers playing games on hard-working home buyers. Why isn't there any scrutiny on these lot on how they do business? (128 points, 43 comments)
    5. What are the best villages/towns/cities to live in for a decent work-life balance from your personal experience? (126 points, 175 comments)
    6. What is the future of work in your opinion? How do you see employment changing over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years? (112 points, 123 comments)
    7. What Car do you drive? How much did you buy it for and what is the monthly/yearly running cost? (98 points, 392 comments)
    8. Does anyone feel a sense of unfairness when they see "cash in hand" business people in everyday life dodging taxes? I feel like I am working my ass off to see my income get taxed heavily while others are getting away with it. (90 points, 189 comments)
  3. 1888 points, 8 submissions: HumbleRug
    1. Is anyone noticing just how much Shrinkflation seems to be happening in UK manufacturers/supermarkets and they seem to be getting away with it? (540 points, 273 comments)
    2. I lost my £193,000 inheritance – with one wrong digit on my sort code - an article from The Guardian worth reading. (318 points, 188 comments)
    3. I think the UKPF community might like this advert (268 points, 47 comments)
    4. How is the Property Market business in the UK still allowed to be so poor in terms of info for buying and selling given how important it is to the purchaser and the seller? (229 points, 131 comments)
    5. HSBC to cut 35,000+ jobs as profits fall (195 points, 182 comments)
    6. What is something you are not admitting to yourself about money and work? (191 points, 320 comments)
    7. BBC: Super-rich elites making London 'off-limits' | London has become the "epicentre of the elites" in the UK, making it "off limits" for young people from poorer backgrounds (75 points, 58 comments)
    8. What next big thing in your life are you saving up for? (72 points, 303 comments)
  4. 1731 points, 7 submissions: Borax
    1. From 1st June 2019 it will be illegal for letting agents to charge tenants anything that isn't rent, deposit and contract break fees (717 points, 226 comments)
    2. Debt support charity StepChange will be doing an AMA (community interview) next Wednesday at midday. (330 points, 7 comments)
    3. HMRC issues clear tax guidance for cryptoassets including Bitcoin - most activity falls under Capital Gains Tax. (184 points, 96 comments)
    4. A rare look inside Bank of England's gold vaults - BBC [2:11] (148 points, 77 comments)
    5. What's your strategy for pretending it’s OK not to have a pension? (148 points, 181 comments)
    6. Azerbaijani State Banker's wife threatened with confiscation of assets under new UWO law after spending £16m in Harrods over a decade. (118 points, 48 comments)
    7. Extensive reply from HMRC about tax status of cryptoassets (86 points, 14 comments)
  5. 1290 points, 2 submissions: LuckySod
    1. A followup after my lottery win (958 points, 136 comments)
    2. I won £1 million and feel completely out of my depth. (332 points, 132 comments)
  6. 1266 points, 2 submissions: pingusbeak
    1. How to buy your first house for dummies (1132 points, 148 comments)
    2. Do estate agents not woo buyers anymore or am I doing something wrong? (134 points, 110 comments)
  7. 1216 points, 6 submissions: MontgomeryBumSnuffle
    1. Rightmove flooded by London AirBnB get-rich-quick tourist apartments (375 points, 210 comments)
    2. Letting fees to be banned in England starting 1st June 2019 (346 points, 150 comments)
    3. Inspired by the Askreddit thread: What’s an unexpectedly well-paid job? (180 points, 342 comments)
    4. The Tenant Fees Act 2019 comes into force today! (145 points, 113 comments)
    5. Upcoming changes to the HTB scheme in April 2021 (93 points, 73 comments)
    6. YSK: Marriage allowance (77 points, 33 comments)
  8. 1144 points, 1 submission: etsatlo
    1. Potentially unpopular opinion - I wish I was furloughed (1144 points, 611 comments)
  9. 1092 points, 7 submissions: tirboki
    1. FAQ on car ownership answered. (448 points, 154 comments)
    2. How much discount can you expect on the asking price? - an analysis (179 points, 110 comments)
    3. A comprehensive statistics on graduate salaries (110 points, 68 comments)
    4. Why do banks run a hard credit search when I switch a current account with zero overdraft? (99 points, 47 comments)
    5. Is there a reason why so many properties are NOT advertised on Rightmove and Zoopla? (90 points, 59 comments)
    6. Amex did increase my credit limit without asking me! - update (84 points, 78 comments)
    7. Best town in UK - a statistical analysis (82 points, 79 comments)
  10. 1078 points, 1 submission: not_provided
    1. I spent 6 months using Starling and Monzo as my main bank accounts. Here's what I learned. (1078 points, 253 comments)

Top Commenters

  1. pflurklurk (16323 points, 960 comments)
  2. sobrique (7562 points, 748 comments)
  3. audigex (4330 points, 452 comments)
  4. ilyemco (4292 points, 428 comments)
  5. edge2528 (4241 points, 164 comments)
  6. tdbroc (3651 points, 289 comments)
  7. bang723 (3452 points, 101 comments)
  8. Narradisall (3102 points, 220 comments)
  9. fsv (2721 points, 318 comments)
  10. redhitman723 (2714 points, 151 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. Potentially unpopular opinion - I wish I was furloughed by etsatlo (1144 points, 611 comments)
  2. How to buy your first house for dummies by pingusbeak (1132 points, 148 comments)
  3. Can the IT brigade on this sub please stop dishing out "learn programming" as a solution to every job problem? by kkokokoh (1081 points, 310 comments)
  4. I spent 6 months using Starling and Monzo as my main bank accounts. Here's what I learned. by not_provided (1078 points, 253 comments)
  5. A followup after my lottery win by LuckySod (958 points, 136 comments)
  6. Update from the guy who left his cushy job 1 year ago for a 'meaningful job' by running_rino (952 points, 130 comments)
  7. I learned the hard way that loyalty to company is not rewarded, it's punished. Be loyal to yourself and don't make my mistake! by HonestPermit (856 points, 97 comments)
  8. Anyone seen this drivel on BBC today? by trotski94 (814 points, 191 comments)
  9. How i caught my car insurance trying to scam me and saved > £1000 by GFY_Everyone (757 points, 155 comments)
  10. From 1st June 2019 it will be illegal for letting agents to charge tenants anything that isn't rent, deposit and contract break fees by Borax (717 points, 226 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 1009 points: jonpreecedev's comment in Can the IT brigade on this sub please stop dishing out "learn programming" as a solution to every job problem?
  2. 763 points: balag12's comment in Saved for 5 years.. feel irrelevant.
  3. 761 points: cobblers's comment in What's the most insane, crazy or financially illiterate move that someone you know has done?
  4. 744 points: TMillo's comment in GF of 10 years and I broke up, what do about house..
  5. 742 points: bang723's comment in So this is why you shouldn't invest the whole of your emergency fund.
  6. 740 points: Yid's comment in Me (M20) and my girlfriend (F20) booked a holiday to Paris in Dec. We broke up
  7. 719 points: unbrokenbg's comment in Any tips on any quick loan companies to borrow £40 for a short time with low interest?
  8. 698 points: frequent__nomad's comment in Only 2.2 million in the UK were subscribed to a stocks and shares ISA account. Why is this so low? Isn't this sector something most of us should know something about? Shouldn't it be as common as a bank account?
  9. 672 points: TrissYenbestcouple's comment in At what stage financially do you start flying business/first class?
  10. 635 points: cranberry198's comment in Wife about to lose her job and baby on the way - advice?
Generated with BBoe's Subreddit Stats
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Why we won't have a long term bear market, and how to systematically pick your future investments in crypto

With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving foward. We've seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.

What's happening now and how bad will it get?

First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top.
Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are:
1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs
2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year
While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:
So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. We don't know how bad it will get or what the future will bring, but as of right now we shouldn't be in a bear market yet.
What should you do if you recently entered the market?
If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers.
The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it.
What should long term investors do?
For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit.
Essentially revaluate your positions and trim your position sizes if you don't feel comfortable with the losses.

How to construct your portfolio going forward

Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling.
Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency
Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong).
There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine:
1) Initial information gathering and filtering
Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.
  • Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
  • Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc
  • Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?
  • Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
2) Fill out an Investment Checklist
I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
  • What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
  • What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
  • Who is their competition and how big is the market they're targeting? What is the roadmap they created?
  • What current product exists?
  • How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
  • What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
3) Create some sort of consistent valuation model/framework, even if its simple
I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic.
Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund.
The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates).
If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do
  • Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.
  • Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
  • If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.
Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action.
Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it.
Think about your portfolio allocation
You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos.
For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps.
You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
  • Core holdings - BTC, Ethereum, LTC...etc
  • Platform segment - Ethereum, NEO, Ark...etc
  • Privacy segment - Monero, Zcash, PivX..etc
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment - Ripple, Stellar...etc
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment -VeChain, Walton, WABI...etc
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment - Raiblocks, IOTA, Cardano...etc
You should also think about where we are in the cycle, as now given so much uncertaintly its probably best to stay heavily in core holdings and pick up a few coins within a segment you understand well. If you don't understand how enterprise solutions work or how the value chain is built through corporations, don't invest in the enteprise blockchain solutions segment. If you are a technie who loves the technology behind Cardano or IOTA, invest in that segment.
Think of your "circle of competence"
This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption?
This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.
Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets
If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.

Summing it up

I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemebeearly January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming.
Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach.
Take care and have fun investing :)
Edit March 2018: Lol looking back I'm regretting starting the title with "Why we won't have a long term bear market" now, I was more karma whoring with that catchy title than anything. We recovered up to 11K from this post, but then crashed again hard later in February-March because of a slew of reasons from Tether subpeona to unforseen regulatory issues.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Loom Network Was the 8th Most Developed ERC-20 Dapp in December! - Santiment Community Insights

https://twitter.com/santimentfeed/status/1212047962827829248
As many of you may know by now, our team at Santiment (the most comprehensive cryptocurrency data analytics platform available) analyzes which projects have been developing most rapidly, based on submission rates that we track using each projects' Github metrics (explained in this article).
Some of the more recent milestones from the Loom team include:
For those of you who don't know about Santiment, we track metrics and insights for all things crypto, and pay particular focus toward ERC-20 Dapps. This project's development activity and improvements have been consistently among the highest among them. Check out the full month's countdown here.
Please feel free to subscribe to Santiment, and Pro subscriptions are getting a major overhaul in added features and more quality templates, such as NVT and DAA Divergence up-to-the-day market analysis to find local tops and bottoms! Our premium users are reporting significantly greater returns that more than outweigh the affordable packages we offer. For more insights like this if these types of analyses interest you. We'd also recommend our Twitter page as a source to be consistently updated on all sorts of insights we release on a regular basis. Thank you!
submitted by BrianAtSantiment to loomnetwork [link] [comments]

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: The spreadsheet that got me my first 1,000% gain

TL;DR: I created a spreadsheet that automates pulling trending cryptocurrencies, recent tweets, and bullish/bearish sentiment into Google Sheets. You can find it here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
I know some crypto users prefer to work in spreadsheets (including myself) so I created a spreadsheet that looks at trending symbols and estimates bullish/bearish sentiment. I never had the time to develop software engineering skills, but the recent launch of a few add-ins has allowed regular joes like myself to harness the power of APIs.

The Beauty of Sentiment Trading

According to Google Trends, the word “sentiment analysis” has been gaining steady traction over the past 5 years.
Sentiment refers to the attitude expressed by an individual regarding a certain topic. This is especially relevant in trading, where so much of the change in price is dictated by emotions:
When it is applied to trading, sentiment can be used (with great potential windfall) as a directional signal to figure out whether you should enter a crypto position within your portfolio.
A way you can utilize sentiment when trading crypto, is to measure the positivity or negativity of a tweet. If recent tweets have been overwhelmingly bullish (aka, the person expects the crypto rise) and movement is beginning to happen in the currency, chances are good that the trend will continue.
Luckily for you, StockTwits already does this with around 225 different cryptocurrencies. And if you can combine the sentiment with trending cryptocurrencies, you can catch the wave right as it forms.

Services Used:

  1. Google Sheets
  2. Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in
  3. StockTwits
  4. CoinMarketCap API
Full disclosure: The google sheets add-in is a 14-day free trial, and $15 per month after. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A note on security

Users have expressed hesitation about running a google sheets add-in on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

What it pulls:

AN OVERVIEW OF THE SECTIONS

The Dashboard
Changing the timeframe
Changing the cryptocurrency
Instructions Tab
Summary Tab

How to use the spreadsheet to spot trending cryptocurrencies

You will spend most of your time in the “Analysis” tab, where the trending cryptocurrencies reside.
I am almost always looking at the “By Hour” timeframe, as the “By Day” and “By Week” is usually a missed opportunity…however, those time frames can still be very useful (albeit, for different reasons).
You want to ride the wave on a cryptocurrency under one or both of the following conditions:
  1. The tweets are very recent, preferably within the last hour
  2. Overwhelmingly Bullish sentiment
A Great Example
A Bad Example

Getting the spreadsheet to work for you

1. Install the Spreadstreet add-in for Google Sheets
2. Get sheet ready for use with the add-in
3. After logging into the add-in, refresh the sheet

Troubleshooting

  1. Important Open the template, click the menu Add-ons / Spreadstreet / Help / View in store, and then click Manage and in the dropdown menu click “Use in this document.”
  2. A reload of the entire worksheet fixes quite a few problems.
  3. Deleting and re-pasting the formula in A1 of the “Data” tab fixes things as well.
  4. If all else fails, drop me a message
  5. The “TIMEFRAME” cell in the Analysis tab (B3) refreshes the pull. Change the results for new data.
Some trending coins are not pulling correctly…what’s going on?
StockTwits has a list of ~225 coins it currently supports. See the “TweetInfo” tab for the full list.
I have tried logging in, activating the template with “Use in this document” and refreshed the sheet…still nothing.
Head to the “Data” tab. Delete the formula in cell A1, and repaste the following: =SS(“tickers-coinmarketcap”, headers, “0”, Currency)
Hoping this is something that is useful to everyone, and I am more than happy to help peeps setup the sheet so they can use it. Just send me a message on here.
Original Medium article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/financial-modeling-for-cryptocurrencies-the-spreadsheet-that-got-me-my-first-1-000-gain-f4d0d1a6e5ed

RESOURCES

Download the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
Download the add-in: https://spreadstreet.io/tools/google-sheets-add-in
Help: https://spreadstreet.io/docs
First time install and login: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLjtPR4T2bg
Bitfinex Candles endpoint help: https://spreadstreet.io/knowledge-base/bitfinex-api-candles-endpoint/

RELATED POSTS

Top 12 Cryptocurrencies Ranked by Risk-Adjusted Return
10 Statistical Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet.io, former Financial Analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Beginner's Guide to Trading Crypto. Part 12

Beginner's Guide to Trading Crypto. Part 12

Crypto Trading Bots: The Servants That Make You Rich

The classical stock market has its phases, since it sleeps and awakens to resume trading. Unlike the traditional financial market, the crypto market never sleeps and trades nonstop. Such an approach can be quite profitable for those who resort to modern means of replacing themselves at the screen to go to sleep and let trading continue in automatic mode.
The advent of trading bots allowed not only traditional market participants, but also crypto market enthusiasts to make profit nonstop at speeds and functional capabilities that humans will never be able to achieve.

Trading Bots

In essence, trading bots are software programs that are installed as add-ons on financial software interfaces. Acting as automated trading operations facilitators, the trading bots execute strategies and actions that they are programmed to perform by the traders. Trading bots can place buy and sell orders based on parameters and algorithms, while more advanced models of bots are capable of conducting in-depth analysis of financial markets to reveal profitable avenues and approaches to strategies.
The bots themselves rarely take action on their own, as traders program them to analyze market volumes, cups, dynamics and other parameters to act based on a pre-determined strategy. Though highly popular on traditional markets over the last decade, trading bots are quite restrictive in both their price, which can start from $10,000 on a Bloomberg trading terminal, and their limited functionality. However, the advent of blockchain and cryptocurrencies together with AI and neural networks has allowed trading bots to evolve into more advanced constructs capable of relatively independent “thinking” that allows them to take action based on a variety of aggregated datasets.

Cryptocurrency Trading Bots

Cryptocurrency trading bots have arisen together with the advent of crypto exchanges. It did not take programmers long to develop bots capable of monitoring the crypto market and executing strategies. The similarities between the crypto and traditional markets have made the transition even easier.
Like their traditional counterparts, cryptocurrency trading bots act on the basis of data they aggregate from a variety of sources, namely the crypto exchanges. They analyze market parameters and execute the strategies that the traders program them to perform. Cryptocurrency day trading bots are the most popular type, since day trading still provides the biggest scope of opportunities for making profits on heightened market volatility. Bitcoin buy and sell bots are some of the most popular constructs tailored for the market.
The logical arising question of how to make a cryptocurrency trading bot is a fairy popular one on the web, and the answer is not as simple as it would seem. Making a crypto trading bot is the job of traders/programmers who are qualified enough to make a piece of software capable of coping with vast amounts of financial data. In fact, cryptocurrency trading bots are available from open sources on the web and there are dozens of template software samples available to tailor any need.
The internet is also awash with crypto trading bot reviews, which include Bitcoin arbitrage bots, day trading bots, specialized crypto coin trading bots and many others.
Apart from expensive and highly advanced crypto trading bots, there are also free models that are available to average users. The constructs available range from beginner to advanced trader level in their complexity and user interface friendliness.
Apart from average trading bots, there are also arbitrage bots, which are also software programs that have features allowing traders to set up a variety of parameters that will directly affect the bot's behavior. With such an approach to trading, the bots can enter various exchanges that support them and trade in autonomous fashion on the trader’s behalf. The main advantage of arbitrage bots is that they can make instantaneous decisions depending on asset price movements to make profits for the trader.

The Main Types Of Strategies Used By Bots

Since trading bots largely act as avatars for traders, they mimic the strategies that the traders program them to execute. Some of the most popular strategies that bots are used for are the following:
Trading on the exchange is the classic norm under which a bot is programmed to buy or sell some assets at predetermined prices by placing buy and sell orders.
Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset for the purpose of making a profit from an imbalance in its price. Identical or similar financial instruments on different markets or in different forms have different prices, and by exploiting those differences, the bots make profits for the traders.
Market making is the third most popular strategy employed by trading bots. Namely, market making is the execution of strategies or sell-side methods designed to capture spreads, otherwise known as the difference in price between buys and sells. In essence, the bots act as market makers, essentially acting as a guaranteed counterparty for other traders that are single directional in the market.

Other Useful Features

Trading bots are not only about trading, as there are some constructs which were designed as assistants to traders rather than as direct replacements or avatars. There are bots that are designed as market dynamics analysts, others act as aggregators of information that provide detailed market charts, while some are deigned to filter out useful information in news backgrounds that can affect asset prices. The variety of bots on the market is immense and they have been around for far longer than the crypto market itself. In fact, many bank tellers, online shop assistants, even surveillance systems are actually bots, which have been designed to perform specialized features.
The same applies to the crypto market, where the merger or AI and neural networks has given birth to invaluable constructs that help traders and enthusiasts make sense of the market.

The Risks

https://preview.redd.it/ic1bq9zzz7541.jpg?width=376&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0af38dc3e1aa1964d172114ac66a817eb8e750ea
Needless to say, there are risks involved with using bots as well. Since the software is imperfect by nature of its automation, limited independence and lack of critical thinking outside the set parameters, bots should be monitored constantly and are by no means a panacea that would ensure profits. Bots are more like assistants that can take over for the trader for a limited time and execute mundane tasks. More complex tasks, such as analysis of charts, in-depth technical analysis and decision making are still the responsibility of human traders.
The risks of loss run high if trading bots are abused or left unchecked. Given that the bots cannot always spot market movements that have to predicted, it is highly advised to use bots with caution and rely on personal involvement in the trading process.
Check us out at https://moontrader.io
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MoonTraderPlatform
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MoonTrader_io
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/19203733
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/Moontrader_official/
Telegram: https://t.me/moontrader_news_en

Originally posted on our blog.
submitted by MoonTrader_io to Moontrader_official [link] [comments]

My first month of blogging is in the books. I increased active website users 500%, got featured on Quora, and detail my 17 step process for every post

I wish I would have started content marketing sooner.
After reading countless blog posts, books, articles...everything...it is ingrained in your head that content marketing should be started from day one.
The reason for this, is due to the sheer amount of time it takes to start ranking for keywords in search engines. Everyone knows this, but for some reason I put it off until mid-October (after being in business since February).
I fully expected the traction to slowly trickle in and take a few months, but I was very surprised by the immediate results I have been seeing.
After blogging twice a week (Tuesdays and Fridays) for a month, here are my takeaways:

The Good

First, let's talk about the good things:
1. From 0 to 44k views on Medium I had a Medium account for a while, but never posted anything until October 14th, 2017. This post detailed a brand new Google Sheets add-in I developed for cryptocurrencies.
From Oct 14th to Nov 14th, I accumulated 44k views, 21k reads, and (yay!) 285 fans:
Medium View Statistics for One Month
You will notice right around Nov 6th a spike in views. This was because...
2. One of my posts took off
10 Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies went mini viral
My post on 10 Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies had a great showing, and something happened to it over the weekend.
This post by itself had half the views of all the blog posts I created. If we take a look at the referrers we see:
Blog post referrers for mini viral post
E-mail, IM and direct is very vague, but a good portion comes from my existing mailing list. However, it also looks as though the post was shared quite a bit on Facebook, and Reddit. The Quora referrers you see is from taking the information contained in the blog posts, and answering questions on Quora.
This leads me to...
3. 342k views, 1,100 upvotes, and 54 shares on Quora
Monthly quora views
One of my answers, What is the Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2019 also took off. This answer had 819 upvotes, and 218k views.
This combination of answers led too...
4. I hit the Top 10 Most Viewed Writers in Cryptocurrencies on Quora
Top 10 writers in cryptocurrencies category on Quora
This was really cool to see, and I was very proud of the accomplishment. The other users in the list are some great minds in the space, so it was humbling to be mentioned along side of them.
5. Weekly active users on the website increased by 500%
Spreadstreet increase in daily active users
And this is where I was shocked by the amount of users coming to the website so quickly. I figured it was going to completely trickle for a few months, and then start picking up after the posts started to rank.
6. Total signups has started an exponential curve
Cumulative user count growth
I really hope this is starting a new trends for sign-ups. I have read many times about the product maturity growth curve, and it would be great for this to be a major inflection point within the business.
7. Most of the community has provided both encouraging, and educational comments
My favorite part of this experience has been interacting with the readers. The comments have ranged from encouraging:
Helpful comment number 1
Helpful comment number 2
To educational:
Educational comment number 2
Educational comment number 1

The Bad

Not everything is all snowflakes and butterflies. I had some hiccups along the way:
1. My upvoted answer on Quora was almost indefinitely collapsed due to (unwarranted) plagiarism
This was strictly a misunderstanding, and 100% my fault. I used the analysis completed in one of my posts as an answer to the question mentioned above. My space-cadet self forgot to link back to the original article, and Quora's algorithm's detected plagiarism and collapsed the answer.
If your answer is collapsed on Quora from plagiarism, consider it a death knell. I pleaded my case with the Quora mods, claiming that the answer was my original content, I just forgot to link to the original article. They very kindly uncollapsed the answer, and I avoided a pretty big hit. I applaud them for their rightful justice.

The Ugly

1. Some people are downright mean and angry
Names blurred to protect the...innocent?
Mean comment number 1
Mean comment number 2
Mean comment number 3
Mean comment number 4
My biggest and best advice for this - do not give the trolls the light of day. You may want to get in a shouting match, but NOBODY WINS AN ARGUMENT ON THE INTERNET.
Although, do not view criticism as a troll. The number one thing you can do is continue learning, and through the mounds of shit you can find some of the best and brightest online.
2. I absolutely despise editing and creating pictures
By far the biggest time sink is the editing process. I do not want to cover off on everything that has to be done (as it gives me PTSD), but making sure you have no spelling errors, headlines, bolds, pictures, etc...takes an ENORMOUS amount of time.
In the future I will look to outsource a good portion of this, but sweat equity for now.

My 17 step process for (almost) every blog post

For my blogging, I have a 17 step process I follow for most posts:
Creation Process
  1. Create a tool (my product is a spreadsheet add-in. The 'tool' is a helpful template that users can copy and use)
  2. Make a YouTube video on the tool
  3. Wordpress Post
Then I crosspost with rel:canonical to:
  1. Medium
  2. Steemit
  3. Reddit (multiple subreddits)
  4. Indie Hackers (if relevant)
Then I submit links to:
  1. Hacker News
  2. Digg
  3. Slashdot
  4. Bootstrappers.io (if relevant)
  5. Bitcointalk forum
  6. Cryptocompare
  7. Multiple Facebook groups
Marketing automation:
  1. Add ~4 tweets to a Zapier automation that randomizes tweets once per hour
  2. Add pieces to two different mailing lists through Mailchimp
Then I utilize blog post to answer questions on:
  1. Quora
This has been my preliminary plan, and it has produced some pretty good results. I will obviously change depending on what is working and what is not working (for example, Quora and Medium are working EXTREMELY well, but Bitcointalk gets pretty much nothing).

What can I do better?

This section is for you. I really want to know:
"What can I do better?" - John Young, asking you
I am still very new to the game, and want to learn any and everything I can. Would love suggestions or critiques of the current process.

What's next?

I will continue to blog twice a week (Tuesdays and Fridays) and will be testing what subjects and topics my readers want the most.
What I will focus on, is watching my cohort metrics. All of this traffic is great, but if I am unable to convert over to my product, then it will be tough to continue on.

Books that really helped me

Everybody Writes: Your Go-To Guide to Creating Ridiculously Good Content by Anne Handley
The One Hour Content Plan: The Solopreneur’s Guide to a Year’s Worth of Blog Post Ideas in 60 Minutes and Creating Content That Hooks and Sells by Meera Kothand
Traction: How Any Startup Can Achieve Explosive Customer Growth by Gabriel Weinberg

Hit me up

I would love to hear from you!
Here are my preferred channels, ranked:
  1. E-mail (not sure I can post it here, but pretty easy to find)
  2. LinkedIn
  3. BookFace
Original Medium article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/how-i-increased-active-website-users-by-500-in-my-first-month-of-blogging-cb0a19f3315b
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to Entrepreneur [link] [comments]

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: The spreadsheet that got me my first 1,000% gain

TL;DR: I created a spreadsheet that automates pulling trending cryptocurrencies, recent tweets, and bullish/bearish sentiment into Google Sheets. You can find it here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
I know some crypto users prefer to work in spreadsheets (including myself) so I created a spreadsheet that looks at trending symbols and estimates bullish/bearish sentiment. I never had the time to develop software engineering skills, but the recent launch of a few add-ins has allowed regular joes like myself to harness the power of APIs.

The Beauty of Sentiment Trading

According to Google Trends, the word “sentiment analysis” has been gaining steady traction over the past 5 years.
Sentiment refers to the attitude expressed by an individual regarding a certain topic. This is especially relevant in trading, where so much of the change in price is dictated by emotions:
When it is applied to trading, sentiment can be used (with great potential windfall) as a directional signal to figure out whether you should enter a crypto position within your portfolio.
A way you can utilize sentiment when trading crypto, is to measure the positivity or negativity of a tweet. If recent tweets have been overwhelmingly bullish (aka, the person expects the crypto rise) and movement is beginning to happen in the currency, chances are good that the trend will continue.
Luckily for you, StockTwits already does this with around 225 different cryptocurrencies. And if you can combine the sentiment with trending cryptocurrencies, you can catch the wave right as it forms.

Services Used:

  1. Google Sheets
  2. Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in
  3. StockTwits
  4. CoinMarketCap API
Full disclosure: The google sheets add-in is a 14-day free trial, and $15 per month after. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A note on security

Users have expressed hesitation about running a google sheets add-in on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

What it pulls:

AN OVERVIEW OF THE SECTIONS

The Dashboard
Changing the timeframe
Changing the cryptocurrency
Instructions Tab
Summary Tab

How to use the spreadsheet to spot trending cryptocurrencies

You will spend most of your time in the “Analysis” tab, where the trending cryptocurrencies reside.
I am almost always looking at the “By Hour” timeframe, as the “By Day” and “By Week” is usually a missed opportunity…however, those time frames can still be very useful (albeit, for different reasons).
You want to ride the wave on a cryptocurrency under one or both of the following conditions:
  1. The tweets are very recent, preferably within the last hour
  2. Overwhelmingly Bullish sentiment
A Great Example
A Bad Example

Getting the spreadsheet to work for you

1. Install the Spreadstreet add-in for Google Sheets
2. Get sheet ready for use with the add-in
3. After logging into the add-in, refresh the sheet

Troubleshooting

  1. Important Open the template, click the menu Add-ons / Spreadstreet / Help / View in store, and then click Manage and in the dropdown menu click “Use in this document.”
  2. A reload of the entire worksheet fixes quite a few problems.
  3. Deleting and re-pasting the formula in A1 of the “Data” tab fixes things as well.
  4. If all else fails, drop a line to [email protected]. He will get you running in no time.
  5. The “TIMEFRAME” cell in the Analysis tab (B3) refreshes the pull. Change the results for new data.
Some trending coins are not pulling correctly…what’s going on?
StockTwits has a list of ~225 coins it currently supports. See the “TweetInfo” tab for the full list.
I have tried logging in, activating the template with “Use in this document” and refreshed the sheet…still nothing.
Head to the “Data” tab. Delete the formula in cell A1, and repaste the following: =SS(“tickers-coinmarketcap”, headers, “0”, Currency)
Hoping this is something that is useful to everyone, and I am more than happy to help peeps setup the sheet so they can use it. Just send me a message on here.
Original Medium article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/financial-modeling-for-cryptocurrencies-the-spreadsheet-that-got-me-my-first-1-000-gain-f4d0d1a6e5ed

RESOURCES

Download the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
Download the add-in: https://spreadstreet.io/tools/google-sheets-add-in
Help: https://spreadstreet.io/docs
First time install and login: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLjtPR4T2bg
Bitfinex Candles endpoint help: https://spreadstreet.io/knowledge-base/bitfinex-api-candles-endpoint/

RELATED POSTS

Top 12 Cryptocurrencies Ranked by Risk-Adjusted Return
10 Statistical Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet.io, former Financial Analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to LitecoinMarkets [link] [comments]

10 Statistical Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies — January 2018

TL;DR: I simulated a 1-year movement of 10 top cryptocurrencies using an advanced statistical method called geometric Brownian motion, which you can find below. I also created a spreadsheet to simulate prices of ~24 different cryptocurrencies, which you can download here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eUIgBowJs2NyKw7kYbx5z_VeCOxsMQdNELfbngs4XnY/copy. The sheet utilizes a paid add-in, which I provide free of cost to those who are less fortunate.

THE MYSTERY OF PRICE MOVEMENT

So, you’re sitting at your computer with money to invest.
You have made some good money already in the market, but you want more.
Cryptocurrencies have reached a record $600 billion in market value after the recovery, with the inevitable $700 billion mark right around the corner.
The price movement of top currencies remains a mystery. But it doesn’t have to be.

THE PAIN OF UNCERTAINTY

Cryptocurrencies are volatile, irrational beasts.
Simple methods of forecasting grossly oveunderestimate the potential of a volatile currency.
For example, moving averages are used frequently to estimate future prices. Moving averages, however, suffer from many pitfalls that make them poor estimators of volatile markets.
Every great and successful investor has a plan. You will add one more tool to your arsenal today.

A BETTER METHOD FOR ESTIMATING CRYPTO PRICES

In my prior article about estimating the movement of Bitcoin Prices, I spoke of a method that is used frequently in the stock world to estimate prices.
This method is a Monte Carlo simulation using the geometric Brownian motion model.
I won’t cover off on the full methodology here, but essentially I am going to:
  1. Get historical daily prices for 10 top cryptocurrencies
  2. Calculate daily returns
  3. Simulate a year
  4. Simulate a year many times
By the end of the article, you will have the following:
A note on forecasting, simulations, and recommendations: Monte Carlo simulations are to be used as guidelines and tools, not as gospel. I am not offering financial or investing advice.

BITCOIN

What is Bitcoin?

You know what Bitcoin is, stop it.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Bitcoin Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Bitcoin Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin prices will fall between $9,095, and $371,588 with a median of $60,837.

BITCOIN CASH

What is Bitcoin Cash?

From the Bitcoin Cash project website:
“Bitcoin Cash is peer-to-peer electronic cash for the Internet. It is fully decentralized, with no central bank and requires no trusted third parties to operate.”
Really, it was an additional currency that was created after a fork from Bitcoin core.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Bitcoin Cash Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Bitcoin Cash Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin Cash prices will fall between $197, and $180,288 with a median of $4,839.

ETHEREUM

What is Ethereum?

Ethereum is a decentralized platform that runs smart contracts: applications that run exactly as programmed without any possibility of downtime, censorship, fraud or third party interference.
Ethereum has been busy recently. Multiple steps have been pushed in motion for the upcoming large change — reaching a new consensus method.
From Jordan Daniel at ethnews.com:
Ethereum’s Byzantium hard fork was only one half of a two-part process designed to transition the decentralized application platform to a new method for reaching consensus — proof-of-stake. The next hard fork, called Constantinople, was recently discussed during an Ethereum core developer meeting and could include Vitalik Buterin’s Casper update.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Ethereum Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Ethereum Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Ethereum prices will fall between $193, and $8,027 with a median of $1,267.

EOS

What is EOS?

EOS is a blockchain-based, decentralized operating system, designed to support commercial-scale decentralized applications by providing all of the necessary core functionality, enabling businesses to build blockchain applications in a way similar to web-based applications.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of EOS Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year EOS Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that EOS prices will fall between $0.98, and $1,386 with a median of $33.

LITECOIN

What is Litecoin?

Litecoin’s claim to fame is faster transaction processing times. It uses a scrypt-based mining proof-of-work algorithm to target the regular computers and GPUs most people already have.
The ability to target regular computers and GPU’s happens to be a huge differentiator from the crowded mining population of Bitcoin.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Litecoin Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Litecoin Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Litecoin prices will fall between $42, and $12,241 with a median of $745.

OMISEGO

What is OmiseGO?

OmiseGO is building a couple of things:
  1. Decentralized exchange
  2. Liquidity provider mechanism
  3. Clearinghouse messaging network
  4. Asset-backed blockchain gateway
OmiseGO is not owned by any single one party. Instead, it is an open distributed network of validators which enforce behavior of all participants.
According to Blocknight:
Also, OmiseGo counts Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum), and Joseph Poon (Lightning Network Co Author) among their advisers. Joseph Poon is actually billed as author of the OmiseGo whitepaper.
Those are some pretty big names.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of OmiseGO Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year OmiseGO Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that OmiseGO prices will fall between $0.62, and $185.35 with a median of $8.56.

NEO

What is NEO?

NEO (formerly known as AntShares) is a smart asset platform and the first open source public blockchain project in China. Smart assets are the combination of smart blockchain contracts and digital assets.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of NEO Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year NEO Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that NEO prices will fall between $3, and $3,076 with a median of $115.

RIPPLE

What is Ripple?

Ripple is a system created for banks to enable immediate payments and lower costs.
The vision of the Ripple creators is to allow a bank transfer in a few seconds (instead of the horribly annoying 2–3 business days).
Of note, is that Ripple is a U.S. based company. From the xrphodor blog:
Ripple is a US-based company.
Why is this an important point to consider? A US-based company like Ripple is subject to some very stringent laws regarding securities trading and money transmission. These include requirements that define how Ripple might interact with crypto markets and both institutional and retail crypto traders.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Ripple Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Ripple Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Ripple prices will fall between $0.05, and $163 with a median of $2.71.

MONERO

What is Monero?

Monero attempts to solve privacy and fungibility issues that persist in Bitcoin.
Part of the algorithm for Monero automatically mixes transactions with previous transactions and does this by implementing ring signatures.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Monero Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Monero Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Monero prices will fall between $68, and $8,142 with a median of $760.

Zcash

What is Zcash?

From the Blockchainhub infographic:
Zcash is a permissionless cryptocurrency that can fully protect the privacy of transactions using zero-knowledge cryptography.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of ZCash Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year ZCash Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Zcash prices will fall between $54, and $6,259 with a median of $549.

YOUR VERY OWN FORECASTING TOOL

Since i’m so nice, I went ahead and created a forecasting tool for you to use:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eUIgBowJs2NyKw7kYbx5z_VeCOxsMQdNELfbngs4XnY/copy

SERVICES USED:

  1. Google Sheets
  2. Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in
  3. StockTwits
  4. CoinMarketCap API
Full disclosure: The google sheets add-in is a 14-day free trial, and $15 per month after. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A NOTE ON SECURITY

Users have expressed hesitation about running a google sheets add-in on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

WHAT IT PULLS:

GETTING THE SPREADSHEET TO WORK FOR YOU

Install the Spreadstreet add-in for Google Sheets
Get sheet ready for use with the add-in
After logging into the add-in, change the dropdown reference

TROUBLESHOOTING

  1. Important Open the template, click the menu Add-ons / Spreadstreet / Help / View in store, and then click Manage and in the dropdown menu click “Use in this document.”
  2. A reload of the entire worksheet fixes quite a few problems.
  3. Deleting and re-pasting the formula in A1 of the “Candles” tab fixes things as well.
  4. If all else fails, drop me a message
  5. The “SELECT CURRENCY” cell in the Analysis tab (B3) refreshes the pull. Change the results for new data.
When I try and change a coin, I get a #DIV/0 error
Login to the Spreadstreet add-in, and keep the window open. Try changing the dropdown again.
I have tried logging in, activating the template with “Use in this document” and refreshed the sheet…still nothing.
Head to the “Data” tab. Delete the formula in cell A1, and repaste the following: =SS(“candles-bitfinex”, ticker, “1D”, “hist”, true, “”, “”, “”, “0”)

CONCLUSION

Whether you are investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or SpankCoin, it is imperative to have a plan. Most notably, a worst-case scenario.
The Monte Carlo simulation is a fantastic way to get a range of prices for a cryptocurrency. And after reading this, you can see how the final values change drastically depending on what you are looking at.
I urge you to download the sheet and try your own hand at simulating different coins. The sheet is setup to pull in every single coin from CoinMarketCap.
Cheers, and happy hunting
Original article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/10-statistical-price-predictions-for-10-cryptocurrencies-january-2018-3dcf04bf9d9a

RELATED POSTS

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: The spreadsheet that got me my first 1,000% gain
A Super Simple Cryptocurrency Arbitrage Spreadsheet for Finding Mismatched Prices
Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets
7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Decred Journal – July 2018

Note: you can read this on Medium, GitHub or old Reddit to view all the links

Development

dcrd: Several steps towards multipeer downloads completed: an optimization to use in-memory block index and a new 1337 chain view. Maintenance: improved test coverage, upgrading dependency management system and preparing for the upcoming Go 1.11 release.
dcrwallet: A big change introducing optional privacy-preserving SPV sync mode was merged. In this mode dcrwallet does not download the full blockchain but only gets the "filters", uses them to determine which blocks it needs and fetches them from random nodes on the network. This has on-disk footprint of 300-400 MB and sync time of minutes, compared to ~3.4 GB and sync time of hours for full sync (these are rough estimates).
jy-p: the server side of SPV (in dcrd) was deployed in v1.2.0, the client side of SPV (in dcrwallet) is in our next release, v1.3.0. Still some minor bugs in SPV that are being worked out. There will be an update to add the latest features from BIP 157/158 in the next few months. SPV will be optional in v1.3.0, but it will become the default after we get a proper header commitment for it (#general)
Decrediton: besides regular bugfixes and design improvements, several components are being developed in parallel like SPV mode, Politeia integration and Trezor support.
Politeia: testing started on mainnet, thanks to everyone who is participating. A lot of testing, bugfixing and polishing is happening in preparation for full mainnet launch. There are also a few missing features to be added before launch, e.g. capacity to edit a proposal and versioning for that, discussion to remain open once voting starts. Decrediton integration is moving forward, check out this video for a demo and this meta issue for the full checklist.
Trezor: Decrediton integration of initial Trezor support is in progress and there is a demo.
Android: app design version 2.0 completed.
dcrdata: development of several chart visualizations was completed and is awaiting deployment. Specifically, voting agendas and historic charts are merged while ticket pool visualization is in testing.
atomicswap: @glendc is seeking reviews of his Ethereum support pull request.
Dev activity stats for July: 252 active PRs, 220 master commits, 34,754 added and 12,847 deleted lines spread across 6 repositories. Contributions came from 6-10 developers per repository. (chart)

Network

Hashrate: the month started at 40.5 and ended at 51.6 PH/s, with a low of 33.3 and a new all time high of 68.4 PH/s. F2Pool is leading with 40-45%, followed by the new BeePool at 15-25% and coinmine.pl at 18-23%.
Staking: 30-day average ticket price is 92.6 DCR (-2.1). The price started the month at 94.6 and quickly retreated to month's low of 85 until 1,860 tickets were bought within a single period (versus target 720). This pushed the pool of tickets to 41,970 (2.5% above target), which in turn caused 10 price increases in a row to the month's high of 100.4. This was the highest ticket price seen on the new ticket price algorithm which has been in effect since Jul 2017. Second half of the month there was unusually low volatility between 92 and 94 DCR per ticket. Locked DCR held between 3.75 and 3.87 million or 46.6-48.0% of supply (+0.1% from previous peak).
Nodes: there are 212 public listening and 216 normal nodes per dcred.eu. Version distribution: 67% on v1.2.0 (+10%), 24% on v1.1.2 (-1%), 7% on v1.1.0 (-7%). Node count data is not perfect but we can see the steady trend of upgrading to v1.2.0. This version of dcrd is notable for serving compact filters. The increased count of such full nodes allows the developers to test SPV client mode in preparations for the upcoming v1.3.0 release.

ASICs

Obelisk posted three updates in July. For the most recent daily updates join their Discord.
New miner from iBeLink: DSM7T hashes Blake256 at 7 TH/s or Blake2b at 3.5 TH/s, consumes 2,100 W and costs $3,800, shipping Aug 5-10.
There were also speculations about the mysterious Pangolin Whatsminer DCR with the speed of 44 TH/s at 2,200 W and the cost of $3,888, shipping November. If you know more about it please share with us in #pow-mining channel.

Integrations

Meet new stake pool: dcrpool.ibitlin.com has 1% fees and is hosted by @life.
An interesting detail about decredbrasil.com stake pool was posted in chat:
emiliomann: stakebrasil is one of the pools with the lowest number of missed and expired tickets. It was one of the first and has a smaller percentage than the most recent ones who haven’t had the time to do so. (...) The Brazilian pool should be the one with the more servers spread around the world: 6 to decrease the latency. This is to explain to you why the [pool fee] rate of 5% (currently around 0.06 DCR) on the reward is also one of the highest. girino: 8 voting wallets now. I just finished setting up a new one yesterday. All of them in different datacenters, 3 in europe, 3 in north america, 1 in brazil and one in asia. We also have 3 more servers, 1 for the front end, one for "stats" and one for dcrdata. (#general)
On the mining side, Luxor started a new set of pool servers inside mainland China, while zpool has enabled Decred mining.
StatX announced Decred integration into their live dashboard and public chat.
Decred was added to Satowallet with BTC and ETH trading pairs. Caution: do your best to understand the security model before using any wallet software.

Adoption

VotoLegal update:
Marina Silva is the first presidential candidate in Brazil using blockchain to keep all their electoral donations transparent and traceable. VotoLegal uses Decred technology, awesome use case! (reddit)
The story was covered by criptonoticias.com (translated) and livecoins.com.br (translated), the latter received hundreds of upvotes and comments on brasil.
On the OTC trading front, @i2Rav from i2trading reports:
We continue to see institutional interest in DCR. Large block buyers love the concept of staking as a way to earn additional income and appreciate the stakeholder rights it affords them. Likening a DCR investment to an activist shareholdebondholder gives these institutions some comfort while dipping their toes into a burgeoning new asset class.

Marketing

Targeted advertising reports released for June and July. As usual, reach @timhebel for full versions.
Big news in June: Facebook reversed their policy on banning crypto ads. ICO ads are still banned, but we should be OK. My team filled out the appeal today, so we should hopefully hear something within a few days. (u/timhebel on reddit)
After couple weeks Facebook finally responded to the appeal and the next step is to verify the domain name via DNS.
A pack of Stakey Telegram stickers is now available. Have fun!

Events

Attended:
Upcoming:

Media

Featured articles:
Articles:
Some articles are omitted due to low quality or factual errors.
Translations:
Videos:

Community Discussions

Community stats:
Comm systems update:
Articles:
Twitter: Ari Paul debates "There can be only one" aka "highlander argument".
Reddit and Forum: how ticket pool size influences average vote time; roadmap concerns; why ticket price was volatile; ideas for using Reddit chat for dcrtrader and alternative chat systems; insette's write-up on Andrew Stone's GROUP proposal for miner-validated tokenization that is superior to current OP_RETURN-based schemes; James Liu's paper to extend atomic swaps to financial derivatives; what happens when all DCR are mined, tail emission and incentives for miners.
Chats: why tickets don't have 100% chance to vote; ideas for more straightforward marketing; long-running chat about world economy and failure modes; @brandon's thoughts on tokenizing everything, ICOs, securities, sidechains and more; challenges of staking with Trezor; ideas how to use CryptoSteel wallet with Decred; why exchange can't stake your coins, how staking can increase security, why the function to export seed from wallet is bad idea and why dcrwallet doesn't ever store the seed; ticket voting math; discussion about how GitHub workflow forces to depend on modern web browser and possible alternatives; funding marketing and education in developing markets, vetting contractors based on deliverables, "Decred contractor clearance", continued in #governance.
#dex channel continues to attract thinkers and host chats about influence of exchanges, regulation, HFT, lot sizes, liquidity, on-chain vs off-chain swaps, to name a few topics. #governance also keeps growing and hosting high quality conversations.

Markets

In July DCR was trading in USD 56-76 and BTC 0.0072-0.0109 range. A recovery started after a volume boost of up to $10.5 m on Fex around Jul 13, but once Bitcoin headed towards USD ~8,000 DCR declined along with most altcoins.
WalletInvestor posted a prediction on dcrtrader.
Decred was noticed in top 10 mineable coins on coinmarketcap.com.

Relevant External

One million PCs in China were infected via browser plugins to mine Decred, Siacoin and Digibyte.
In a Unchained podcast episode David Vorick shared why ASICs are better than GPUs even if they tend toward mining centralization and also described Obelisk's new Launchpad service. (missed in June issue)
Sia project moved to GitLab. The stated reasons are to avoid the risk of depending on centralized service, to avoid vendor lock-in, better continuous integration and testing, better access control and the general direction to support decentralized and open source projects.
Luxor explained why PPS pools are better.
@nic__carter published slides from his talk "An Overview of Governance in Blockchains" from Zcon0.
This article arguing the importance of governance systems dates back to 2007.
Bancor wallet was hacked. This reminds us about the fake feeling of decentralizaion, that custody of funds is dangerous and that smart contracts must have minimum complexity and be verifiable.
Circle announced official Poloniex mobile apps for iOS and Android.
On Jul 27 Circle announced delisting of 9 coins from Poloniex that led to a loss of 23-81% of their value same day. Sad reminder about how much a project can depend on a single centralized exchange.
DCR supply and market cap is now correct on onchainfx.com and finally, on coinmarketcap.com. Thanks to @sumiflow, @jz and others doing the tedious work to reach out the various websites.

About This Issue

This is the 4th issue of Decred Journal. It is mirrored on GitHub, Medium and Reddit. Past issues are available here.
Most information from third parties is relayed directly from source after a minimal sanity check. The authors of Decred Journal have no ability to verify all claims. Please beware of scams and do your own research.
Chat links were changed to riot.im from the static web viewer that suffered from UX issues (filed here and here). We will consider changing back to the static viewer once they are resolved because it does not require javascript to read chat logs.
In the previous issue we introduced "Featured articles". The judgement is subjective by definition, if you feel unfairness or want to debate the criteria please check this issue.
Feedback is appreciated: please comment on Reddit, GitHub or #writers_room.
Contributions are also welcome, some areas are adding content, pre-release review or translations to other languages.
Credits (Slack names, alphabetical order): bee, Haon and Richard-Red.
submitted by jet_user to decred [link] [comments]

10 Statistical Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies — January 2018

TL;DR: I simulated a 1-year movement of 10 top cryptocurrencies using an advanced statistical method called geometric Brownian motion, which you can find below. I also created a spreadsheet to simulate prices of ~24 different cryptocurrencies, which you can download here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eUIgBowJs2NyKw7kYbx5z_VeCOxsMQdNELfbngs4XnY/copy. The sheet utilizes a paid add-in, which I provide free of cost to those who are less fortunate.

THE MYSTERY OF PRICE MOVEMENT

So, you’re sitting at your computer with money to invest.
You have made some good money already in the market, but you want more.
Cryptocurrencies have reached a record $600 billion in market value after the recovery, with the inevitable $700 billion mark right around the corner.
The price movement of top currencies remains a mystery. But it doesn’t have to be.

THE PAIN OF UNCERTAINTY

Cryptocurrencies are volatile, irrational beasts.
Simple methods of forecasting grossly oveunderestimate the potential of a volatile currency.
For example, moving averages are used frequently to estimate future prices. Moving averages, however, suffer from many pitfalls that make them poor estimators of volatile markets.
Every great and successful investor has a plan. You will add one more tool to your arsenal today.

A BETTER METHOD FOR ESTIMATING CRYPTO PRICES

In my prior article about estimating the movement of Bitcoin Prices, I spoke of a method that is used frequently in the stock world to estimate prices.
This method is a Monte Carlo simulation using the geometric Brownian motion model.
I won’t cover off on the full methodology here, but essentially I am going to:
  1. Get historical daily prices for 10 top cryptocurrencies
  2. Calculate daily returns
  3. Simulate a year
  4. Simulate a year many times
By the end of the article, you will have the following:
A note on forecasting, simulations, and recommendations: Monte Carlo simulations are to be used as guidelines and tools, not as gospel. I am not offering financial or investing advice.

BITCOIN

What is Bitcoin?

You know what Bitcoin is, stop it.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Bitcoin Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Bitcoin Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin prices will fall between $9,095, and $371,588 with a median of $60,837.

BITCOIN CASH

What is Bitcoin Cash?

From the Bitcoin Cash project website:
“Bitcoin Cash is peer-to-peer electronic cash for the Internet. It is fully decentralized, with no central bank and requires no trusted third parties to operate.”
Really, it was an additional currency that was created after a fork from Bitcoin core.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Bitcoin Cash Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Bitcoin Cash Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin Cash prices will fall between $197, and $180,288 with a median of $4,839.

ETHEREUM

What is Ethereum?

Ethereum is a decentralized platform that runs smart contracts: applications that run exactly as programmed without any possibility of downtime, censorship, fraud or third party interference.
Ethereum has been busy recently. Multiple steps have been pushed in motion for the upcoming large change — reaching a new consensus method.
From Jordan Daniel at ethnews.com:
Ethereum’s Byzantium hard fork was only one half of a two-part process designed to transition the decentralized application platform to a new method for reaching consensus — proof-of-stake. The next hard fork, called Constantinople, was recently discussed during an Ethereum core developer meeting and could include Vitalik Buterin’s Casper update.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Ethereum Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Ethereum Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Ethereum prices will fall between $193, and $8,027 with a median of $1,267.

EOS

What is EOS?

EOS is a blockchain-based, decentralized operating system, designed to support commercial-scale decentralized applications by providing all of the necessary core functionality, enabling businesses to build blockchain applications in a way similar to web-based applications.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of EOS Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year EOS Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that EOS prices will fall between $0.98, and $1,386 with a median of $33.

LITECOIN

What is Litecoin?

Litecoin’s claim to fame is faster transaction processing times. It uses a scrypt-based mining proof-of-work algorithm to target the regular computers and GPUs most people already have.
The ability to target regular computers and GPU’s happens to be a huge differentiator from the crowded mining population of Bitcoin.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Litecoin Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Litecoin Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Litecoin prices will fall between $42, and $12,241 with a median of $745.

OMISEGO

What is OmiseGO?

OmiseGO is building a couple of things:
  1. Decentralized exchange
  2. Liquidity provider mechanism
  3. Clearinghouse messaging network
  4. Asset-backed blockchain gateway
OmiseGO is not owned by any single one party. Instead, it is an open distributed network of validators which enforce behavior of all participants.
According to Blocknight:
Also, OmiseGo counts Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum), and Joseph Poon (Lightning Network Co Author) among their advisers. Joseph Poon is actually billed as author of the OmiseGo whitepaper.
Those are some pretty big names.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of OmiseGO Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year OmiseGO Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that OmiseGO prices will fall between $0.62, and $185.35 with a median of $8.56.

NEO

What is NEO?

NEO (formerly known as AntShares) is a smart asset platform and the first open source public blockchain project in China. Smart assets are the combination of smart blockchain contracts and digital assets.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of NEO Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year NEO Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that NEO prices will fall between $3, and $3,076 with a median of $115.

RIPPLE

What is Ripple?

Ripple is a system created for banks to enable immediate payments and lower costs.
The vision of the Ripple creators is to allow a bank transfer in a few seconds (instead of the horribly annoying 2–3 business days).
Of note, is that Ripple is a U.S. based company. From the xrphodor blog:
Ripple is a US-based company.
Why is this an important point to consider? A US-based company like Ripple is subject to some very stringent laws regarding securities trading and money transmission. These include requirements that define how Ripple might interact with crypto markets and both institutional and retail crypto traders.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Ripple Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Ripple Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Ripple prices will fall between $0.05, and $163 with a median of $2.71.

MONERO

What is Monero?

Monero attempts to solve privacy and fungibility issues that persist in Bitcoin.
Part of the algorithm for Monero automatically mixes transactions with previous transactions and does this by implementing ring signatures.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Monero Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Monero Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Monero prices will fall between $68, and $8,142 with a median of $760.

Zcash

What is Zcash?

From the Blockchainhub infographic:
Zcash is a permissionless cryptocurrency that can fully protect the privacy of transactions using zero-knowledge cryptography.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of ZCash Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year ZCash Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Zcash prices will fall between $54, and $6,259 with a median of $549.

YOUR VERY OWN FORECASTING TOOL

Since i’m so nice, I went ahead and created a forecasting tool for you to use:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eUIgBowJs2NyKw7kYbx5z_VeCOxsMQdNELfbngs4XnY/copy

SERVICES USED:

  1. Google Sheets
  2. Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in
  3. StockTwits
  4. CoinMarketCap API
Full disclosure: The google sheets add-in is a 14-day free trial, and $15 per month after. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A NOTE ON SECURITY

Users have expressed hesitation about running a google sheets add-in on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

WHAT IT PULLS:

GETTING THE SPREADSHEET TO WORK FOR YOU

Install the Spreadstreet add-in for Google Sheets
Get sheet ready for use with the add-in
After logging into the add-in, change the dropdown reference

TROUBLESHOOTING

  1. Important Open the template, click the menu Add-ons / Spreadstreet / Help / View in store, and then click Manage and in the dropdown menu click “Use in this document.”
  2. A reload of the entire worksheet fixes quite a few problems.
  3. Deleting and re-pasting the formula in A1 of the “Candles” tab fixes things as well.
  4. If all else fails, drop me a message
  5. The “SELECT CURRENCY” cell in the Analysis tab (B3) refreshes the pull. Change the results for new data.
When I try and change a coin, I get a #DIV/0 error
Login to the Spreadstreet add-in, and keep the window open. Try changing the dropdown again.
I have tried logging in, activating the template with “Use in this document” and refreshed the sheet…still nothing.
Head to the “Data” tab. Delete the formula in cell A1, and repaste the following: =SS(“candles-bitfinex”, ticker, “1D”, “hist”, true, “”, “”, “”, “0”)

CONCLUSION

Whether you are investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or SpankCoin, it is imperative to have a plan. Most notably, a worst-case scenario.
The Monte Carlo simulation is a fantastic way to get a range of prices for a cryptocurrency. And after reading this, you can see how the final values change drastically depending on what you are looking at.
I urge you to download the sheet and try your own hand at simulating different coins. The sheet is setup to pull in every single coin from CoinMarketCap.
Cheers, and happy hunting
Original article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/10-statistical-price-predictions-for-10-cryptocurrencies-january-2018-3dcf04bf9d9a

RELATED POSTS

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: The spreadsheet that got me my first 1,000% gain
A Super Simple Cryptocurrency Arbitrage Spreadsheet for Finding Mismatched Prices
Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets
7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: The spreadsheet that got me my first 1,000% gain

TL;DR: I created a spreadsheet that automates pulling trending cryptocurrencies, recent tweets, and bullish/bearish sentiment into Google Sheets. You can find it here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
I know some crypto users prefer to work in spreadsheets (including myself) so I created a spreadsheet that looks at trending symbols and estimates bullish/bearish sentiment. I never had the time to develop software engineering skills, but the recent launch of a few add-ins has allowed regular joes like myself to harness the power of APIs.

The Beauty of Sentiment Trading

According to Google Trends, the word “sentiment analysis” has been gaining steady traction over the past 5 years.
Sentiment refers to the attitude expressed by an individual regarding a certain topic. This is especially relevant in trading, where so much of the change in price is dictated by emotions:
When it is applied to trading, sentiment can be used (with great potential windfall) as a directional signal to figure out whether you should enter a crypto position within your portfolio.
A way you can utilize sentiment when trading crypto, is to measure the positivity or negativity of a tweet. If recent tweets have been overwhelmingly bullish (aka, the person expects the crypto rise) and movement is beginning to happen in the currency, chances are good that the trend will continue.
Luckily for you, StockTwits already does this with around 225 different cryptocurrencies. And if you can combine the sentiment with trending cryptocurrencies, you can catch the wave right as it forms.

Services Used:

  1. Google Sheets
  2. Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in
  3. StockTwits
  4. CoinMarketCap API
Full disclosure: The google sheets add-in is a 14-day free trial, and $15 per month after. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A note on security

Users have expressed hesitation about running a google sheets add-in on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

What it pulls:

AN OVERVIEW OF THE SECTIONS

The Dashboard
Changing the timeframe
Changing the cryptocurrency
Instructions Tab
Summary Tab

How to use the spreadsheet to spot trending cryptocurrencies

You will spend most of your time in the “Analysis” tab, where the trending cryptocurrencies reside.
I am almost always looking at the “By Hour” timeframe, as the “By Day” and “By Week” is usually a missed opportunity…however, those time frames can still be very useful (albeit, for different reasons).
You want to ride the wave on a cryptocurrency under one or both of the following conditions:
  1. The tweets are very recent, preferably within the last hour
  2. Overwhelmingly Bullish sentiment
A Great Example
A Bad Example

Getting the spreadsheet to work for you

1. Install the Spreadstreet add-in for Google Sheets
2. Get sheet ready for use with the add-in
3. After logging into the add-in, refresh the sheet

Troubleshooting

  1. Important Open the template, click the menu Add-ons / Spreadstreet / Help / View in store, and then click Manage and in the dropdown menu click “Use in this document.”
  2. A reload of the entire worksheet fixes quite a few problems.
  3. Deleting and re-pasting the formula in A1 of the “Data” tab fixes things as well.
  4. If all else fails, drop a line to [email protected]. He will get you running in no time.
  5. The “TIMEFRAME” cell in the Analysis tab (B3) refreshes the pull. Change the results for new data.
Some trending coins are not pulling correctly…what’s going on?
StockTwits has a list of ~225 coins it currently supports. See the “TweetInfo” tab for the full list.
I have tried logging in, activating the template with “Use in this document” and refreshed the sheet…still nothing.
Head to the “Data” tab. Delete the formula in cell A1, and repaste the following: =SS(“tickers-coinmarketcap”, headers, “0”, Currency)
Hoping this is something that is useful to everyone, and I am more than happy to help peeps setup the sheet so they can use it. Just send me a message on here.
Original Medium article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/financial-modeling-for-cryptocurrencies-the-spreadsheet-that-got-me-my-first-1-000-gain-f4d0d1a6e5ed

RESOURCES

Download the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
Download the add-in: https://spreadstreet.io/tools/google-sheets-add-in
Help: https://spreadstreet.io/docs
First time install and login: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLjtPR4T2bg
Bitfinex Candles endpoint help: https://spreadstreet.io/knowledge-base/bitfinex-api-candles-endpoint/

RELATED POSTS

Top 12 Cryptocurrencies Ranked by Risk-Adjusted Return
10 Statistical Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet.io, former Financial Analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Decred Journal – September 2018

Note: you can read this on GitHub (link), Medium (link) or old Reddit (link).

Development

Final version 1.3.0 of the core software was released bringing all the enhancements reported last month to the rest of the community. The groundwork for SPV (simplified payment verification) is complete, another reduction of fees is being deployed, and performance stepped up once again with a 50% reduction in startup time, 20% increased sync speed and more than 3x faster peer delivery of block headers (a key update for SPV). Decrediton's integrations of SPV and Politeia are open for testing by experienced users. Read the full release notes and get the downloads on GitHub. As always, don't forget to verify signatures.
dcrd: completed several steps towards multipeer downloads, improved introduction to the software in the main README, continued porting cleanups and refactoring from upstream btcd.
Currently in review are initial release of smart fee estimator and a change to UTXO set semantics. The latter is a large and important change that provides simpler handling, and resolves various issues with the previous approach. A lot of testing and careful review is needed so help is welcome.
Educational series for new Decred developers by @matheusd added two episodes: 02 Simnet Setup shows how to automate simnet management with tmux and 03 Miner Reward Invalidation explains block validity rules.
Finally, a pull request template with a list of checks was added to help guide the contributors to dcrd.
dcrwallet: bugfixes and RPC improvements to support desktop and mobile wallets.
Developers are welcome to comment on this idea to derive stakepool keys from the HD wallet seed. This would eliminate the need to backup and restore redeem scripts, thus greatly improving wallet UX. (missed in July issue)
Decrediton: bugfixes, refactoring to make the sync process more robust, new loading animations, design polishing.
Politeia: multiple improvements to the CLI client (security conscious users with more funds at risk might prefer CLI) and security hardening. A feature to deprecate or timeout proposals was identified as necessary for initial release and the work started. A privacy enhancement to not leak metadata of ticket holders was merged.
Android: update from @collins: "Second test release for dcrandroid is out. Major bugs have been fixed since last test. Latest code from SPV sync has been integrated. Once again, bug reports are welcome and issues can be opened on GitHub". Ask in #dev room for the APK to join testing.
A new security page was added that allows one to validate addresses and to sign/verify messages, similar to Decrediton's Security Center. Work on translations is beginning.
Overall the app is quite stable and accepting more testers. Next milestone is getting the test app on the app store.
iOS: the app started accepting testers last week. @macsleven: "the test version of Decred Wallet for iOS is available, we have a link for installing the app but the builds currently require your UDID. Contact either @macsleven or @raedah with your UDID if you would like to help test.".
Nearest goal is to make the app crash free.
Both mobile apps received new design themes.
dcrdata: v3.0 was released for mainnet! Highlights: charts, "merged debits" view, agendas page, Insight API support, side chain tracking, Go 1.11 support with module builds, numerous backend improvements. Full release notes here. This release featured 9 contributors and development lead @chappjc noted: "This collaboration with @raedahgroup on our own block explorer and web API for @decredproject has been super productive.".
Up next is supporting dynamic page widths site wide and deploying new visual blocks home page.
Trezor: proof of concept implementation for Trezor Model T firmware is in the works (previous work was for Model One).
Ticket splitting: updated to use Go modules and added simnet support, several fixes.
docs: beginner's guide overhaul, multiple fixes and cleanups.
decred.org: added 3rd party wallets, removed inactive PoW pools and removed web wallet.
@Richard-Red is building a curated list of Decred-related GitHub repositories.
Welcome to new people contributing for the first time: @klebe, @s_ben, @victorguedes, and PrimeDominus!
Dev activity stats for September: 219 active PRs, 197 commits, 28.7k added and 18.8k deleted lines spread across 6 repositories. Contributions came from 4-10 developers per repository. (chart)

Network

Hashrate: started and ended the month around 75 PH/s, hitting a low of 60.5 and a new high of 110 PH/s. BeePool is again the leader with their share varying between 23-54%, followed by F2Pool 13-30%, Coinmine 4-6% and Luxor 3-5%. As in previous months, there were multiple spikes of unidentified hashrate.
Staking: 30-day average ticket price is 98 DCR (+2.4). The price varied between 95.7 and 101.9 DCR. Locked DCR amount was 3.86-3.96 million DCR, or 45.7-46.5% of the supply.
Nodes: there are 201 public listening nodes and 325 normal nodes per dcred.eu. Version distribution: 5% are v1.4.0(pre) dev builds (+3%), 30% on v1.3.0 (+25%), 42% on v1.2.0 (-20%), 15% on v1.1.2 (-7%), 6% on v1.1.0. More than 76% of nodes run v1.2.0 and higher and therefore support client filters. Data as of Oct 1.

ASICs

Obelisk posted two updates on their mailing list. 70% of Batch 1 units are shipped, an extensive user guide is available, Obelisk Scanner application was released that allows one to automatically update firmware. First firmware update was released and bumped SC1 hashrate by 10-20%, added new pools and fixed multiple bugs. Next update will focus on DCR1. It is worth a special mention that the firmware source code is now open! Let us hope more manufacturers will follow this example.
A few details about Whatsminer surfaced this month. The manufacturer is MicroBT, also known as Bitwei and commonly misspelled as Bitewei. Pangolinminer is a reseller, and the model name is Whatsminer D1.
Bitmain has finally entered Decred ASIC space with their Antminer DR3. Hash rate is 7.8 TH/s while pulling 1410 W, at the price of $673. These specs mean it has the best GH/W and GH/USD of currently sold miners until the Whatsminer or others come out, although its GH/USD of 11.6 already competes with Whatsminer's 10.5. Discussed on Reddit and bitcointalk, unboxing video here.

Integrations

Meet our 17th voting service provider: decredvoting.com. It is operated by @david, has 2% fee and supports ticket splitting. Reddit thread is here.
For a historical note, the first VSP to support ticket splitting was decredbrasil.com:
@matheusd started tests on testnet several months ago. I contacted him so we could integrate with the pool in June this year. We set up the machine in July and bought the first split ticket on mainnet, using the decredbrasil pool, on July 19. It was voted on July 30. After this first vote on mainnet, we opened the tests to selected users (with more technical background) on the pool. In August we opened the tests to everyone, and would call people who want to join to the #ticket_splitting channel, or to our own Slack (in Portuguese, so mostly Brazilian users). We have 28 split tickets already voted, and 16 are live. So little more than 40 split tickets total were bought on decredbrasil pool. (@girino in #pos-voting)
KuCoin exchange listed DCBTC and DCETH pairs. To celebrate their anniversary they had a 99% trading fees discount on DCR pairs for 2 weeks.
Three more wallets integrated Decred in September:
ChangeNow announced Decred addition to their Android app that allows accountless swaps between 150+ assets.
Coinbase launched informational asset pages for top 50 coins by market cap, including Decred. First the pages started showing in the Coinbase app for a small group of testers, and later the web price dashboard went live.

Adoption

The birth of a Brazilian girl was registered on the Decred blockchain using OriginalMy, a blockchain proof of authenticity services provider. Read the full story in Portuguese and in English.

Marketing

Advertising report for September is ready. Next month the graphics for all the ads will be changing.
Marketing might seem quiet right now, but a ton is actually going on behind the scenes to put the right foundation in place for the future. Discovery data are being analyzed to generate a positioning strategy, as well as a messaging hierarchy that can guide how to talk about Decred. This will all be agreed upon via consensus of the community in the work channels, and materials will be distributed.
Next, work is being done to identify the right PR partner to help with media relations, media training, and coordination at events. While all of this is coming up to speed, we believe the website needs a refresher reflecting the soon to be agreed upon messaging, plus a more intuitive architecture to make it easier to navigate. (@Dustorf)

Events

Attended:
Upcoming:
We'll begin shortly reviewing conferences and events planned for the first half of 2019. Highlights are sure to include The North American Bitcoin Conference in Miami (Jan 16-18) and Consensus in NYC (May 14-16). If you have suggestions of events or conferences Decred should attend, please share them in #event_planning. In 2019, we would like to expand our presence in Europe, Asia, and South America, and we're looking for community members to help identify and staff those events. (@Dustorf)

Media

August issue of Decred Journal was translated to Russian. Many thanks to @DZ!
Rency cryptocurrency ratings published a report on Decred and incorporated a lot of feedback from the community on Reddit.
September issue of Chinese CCID ratings was published (snapshot), Decred is still at the bottom.
Videos:
Featured articles:
Articles:

Community Discussions

Community stats:
Comm systems news: Several work channels were migrated to Matrix, #writers_room is finally bridged.
Highlights:
Twitter: why decentralized governance and funding are necessary for network survival and the power of controlling the narrative; learning about governance more broadly by watching its evolution in cryptocurrency space, importance of community consensus and communications infrastructure.
Reddit: yet another strong pitch by @solar; question about buyer protections; dcrtime internals; a proposal to sponsor hoodies in the University of Cape Town; Lightning Network support for altcoins.
Chats: skills to operate a stakepool; voting details: 2 of 3 votes can approve a block, what votes really approve are regular tx, etc; scriptless script atomic swaps using Schnorr adaptor signatures; dev dashboard, choosing work, people do best when working on what interests them most; opportunities for governments and enterprise for anchoring legal data to blockchain; terminology: DAO vs DAE; human-friendly payments, sharing xpub vs payment protocols; funding btcsuite development; Politeia vote types: approval vote, sentiment vote and a defund vote, also linking proposals and financial statements; algo trading and programming languages (yes, on #trading!); alternative implementation, C/C++/Go/Rust; HFTs, algo trading, fake volume and slippage; offline wallets, usb/write-only media/optical scanners vs auditing traffic between dcrd and dcrwallet; Proof of Activity did not inspire Decred but spurred Decred to get moving, Wikipedia page hurdles; how stakeholders could veto blocks; how many votes are needed to approve a proposal; why Decrediton uses Electron; CVE-2018-17144 and over-dependence on single Bitcoin implementation, btcsuite, fuzz testing; tracking proposal progress after voting and funding; why the wallet does not store the seed at all; power connectors, electricity, wiring and fire safety; reasonable spendings from project fund; ways to measure sync progress better than block height; using Politeia without email address; concurrency in Go, locks vs channels.
#support is not often mentioned, but it must be noted that every day on this channel people get high quality support. (@bee: To my surprise, even those poor souls running Windows 10. My greatest respect to the support team!)

Markets

In September DCR was trading in the range of USD 34-45 / BTC 0.0054-0.0063. On Sep 6, DCR revisited the bottom of USD 34 / BTC 0.0054 when BTC quickly dropped from USD 7,300 to 6,400. On Sep 14, a small price rise coincided with both the start of KuCoin trading and hashrate spike to 104 PH/s. Looking at coinmarketcap charts, the trading volume is a bit lower than in July and August.
As of Oct 4, Decred is #18 by the number of daily transactions with 3,200 tx, and #9 by the USD value of daily issuance with $230k. (source: onchainfx)
Interesting observation by @ImacallyouJawdy: while we sit at 2018 price lows the amount locked in tickets is testing 2018 high.

Relevant External

ASIC for Lyra2REv2 was spotted on the web. Vertcoin team is preparing a new PoW algorithm. This would be the 3rd fork after two previous forks to change the algorithm in 2014 and 2015.
A report titled The Positive Externalities of Bitcoin Mining discusses the benefits of PoW mining that are often overlooked by the critics of its energy use.
A Brief Study of Cryptonetwork Forks by Alex Evans of Placeholder studies the behavior of users, developers and miners after the fork, and makes the cases that it is hard for child chains to attract users and developers from their parent chains.
New research on private atomic swaps: the paper "Anonymous Atomic Swaps Using Homomorphic Hashing" attempts to break the public link between two transactions. (bitcointalk, decred)
On Sep 18 Poloniex announced delisting of 8 more assets. That day they took a 12-80% dive showing their dependence on this one exchange.
Circle introduced USDC markets on Poloniex: "USDC is a fully collateralized US dollar stablecoin using the ERC-20 standard that provides detailed financial and operational transparency, operates within the regulated framework of US money transmission laws, and is reinforced by established banking partners and auditors.".
Coinbase announced new asset listing process and is accepting submissions on their listing portal. (decred)
The New York State Office of the Attorney General posted a study of 13 exchanges that contains many insights.
A critical vulnerability was discovered and fixed in Bitcoin Core. Few days later a full disclosure was posted revealing the severity of the bug. In a bitcointalk thread btcd was called 'amateur' despite not being vulnerable, and some Core developers voiced their concerns about multiple implementations. The Bitcoin Unlimited developer who found the bug shared his perspective in a blog post. Decred's vision so far is that more full node implementations is a strength, just like for any Internet protocol.

About This Issue

This is the 6th issue of Decred Journal. It is mirrored on GitHub, Medium and Reddit. Past issues are available here.
Most information from third parties is relayed directly from source after a minimal sanity check. The authors of Decred Journal have no ability to verify all claims. Please beware of scams and do your own research.
Feedback is appreciated: please comment on Reddit, GitHub or #writers_room on Matrix or Slack.
Contributions are also welcome: some areas are adding content, pre-release review or translations to other languages.
Credits (Slack names, alphabetical order): bee, Dustorf, jz, Haon, oregonisaac, raedah and Richard-Red.
submitted by jet_user to decred [link] [comments]

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